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Bitcoin

Bitcoin Miners Stop Selling – Is This A Bottom Signal?

Jake Simmons
by Jake Simmons
2 years ago
·
Posted in Bitcoin
Trusted Editorial content, reviewed by leading industry experts and seasoned editors. Ad Disclosure

Given the escalating drama surrounding the Digital Currency Group (DCG), it does not seem out of the question that the Bitcoin price will drop once again. Despite today’s breakout above the important $17,000 level, a bankruptcy of DCG and a related dissolution of the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) could have a major impact on the price, although it may be partially priced in.

However, a reliable indicator from previous bear markets, the overall BTC miner activity shows that the bottom could be near if it’s not already in. The miner capitulation that began in mid-December may be over for now.

According to Glassnode data, the heavy selling pressure from miners that has weighed on the market over the past 4 months has subsided for now. The Bitcoin miner net position change is back in the green, which means that miners are accumulating again instead of selling, as analyst Will Clemente pointed out.

Bitcoin miner net position change (7d moving average)
Bitcoin miner net position change (7d moving average)

Another metric that signals a bottom has already been reached is the Puell Multiple. The indicator looks at the supply side of the Bitcoin economy, and the miners, and examines market cycles from a mining revenue perspective. It is calculated by dividing the daily issuance value of Bitcoins (in USD) by the 365-day moving average of the daily issuance value.

Related Reading: Why The Dollar Death Cross Is Bullish For Bitcoin

In every cycle, a downward trend in miner revenue forms. This trend is always broken shortly after the bottom of the BTC cycle. A look at the current chart shows that the breakout happened recently, suggesting that Bitcoin may have bottomed at $15,500, according to an analysis by CryptoCon.

Bitcoin Puell Multiple
Puell Multiple

Bitcoin: Two Or Eight Months Of Bear Market Ahead?

Jiang Zhuoer, CEO of mining pool BTC.top today discussed his take on the current Bitcoin market cycle. According to Zhuoer, BTC may have bottomed in 2022 when the FTX collapse caused the price to drop to $15,476. If so, all three bear markets would have taken a similar amount of time from the previous ATH to the bottom.

“The 4-year halving leading to the 4-year cycle law still appears to be unbreakable,” the CEO claims. The analysis is also reinforced by the chart below, according to which Bitcoin has always been close to the bottom after 66% progress in the 4-year cycle.

Halving progress 66%. #Bitcoin pic.twitter.com/D9vMriICvA

— Root 🥕 (@therationalroot) January 7, 2023

Based on market sentiment observations, Zhuoer says the market is in the final sideways phase of the bear market. “Events such as DCG bankruptcy have already been priced in and would no longer have a significant impact on the price.”

Related Reading: DCG Closes Subsidiary HQ Digital, Fueling Fears In Bitcoin Market

Zhuoer’s optimistic prediction is that if the current bear market and the 2018 bear market are similar, the price could go sideways for another two months before the next bull market begins. The BTC.top CEO’s pessimistic scenario is that BTC faces another eight months of sideways movement at the bottom, if the current market cycle is similar to the 2014 bear market.

Looking at Ethereum, Zhuoer concluded by stating:

I expect Ethereum (ETH) to start rising earlier than Bitcoin (BTC) as the leader of the next bull market. This should occur between March and May 2023, the ETH price would be permanently out of the current bottom range.

At press time, the BTC price was at $17,219, breaking above a three-week resistance level.

Bitcoin price BTC/ USD
Bitcoin price (BTC/ USD), 4-hour chart

 

Featured image from Kanchanara / Unsplash, Charts from Twitter and TradingView.com

Editorial Process for bitcoinist is centered on delivering thoroughly researched, accurate, and unbiased content. We uphold strict sourcing standards, and each page undergoes diligent review by our team of top technology experts and seasoned editors. This process ensures the integrity, relevance, and value of our content for our readers.
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Jake Simmons

Jake Simmons

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Jake Simmons has been a Bitcoin enthusiast since 2016. Ever since he heard about Bitcoin, he has been studying the topic every day and trying to share his knowledge with others. His goal is to contribute to Bitcoin's financial revolution, which will replace the fiat money system. Besides BTC and crypto, Jake studied Business Informatics at a university. After graduation in 2017, he has been working in the blockchain and crypto sector. You can follow Jake on Twitter at @realJakeSimmons.

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