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Bitcoin Nears New ATH Amid Positive Q4 Seasonality: Report

Ash Tiwari
by Ash Tiwari
10 months ago
·
Posted in Bitcoin News
Trusted Editorial content, reviewed by leading industry experts and seasoned editors. Ad Disclosure

Despite macroeconomic headwinds, Bitcoin (BTC) looks primed to create a new all-time high (ATH), charged by positive Q4 2024 seasonality.

Bitcoin New ATH On The Horizon?

On October 28, BTC surged past $71,000, sparking optimism for a new ATH above the $73,737 peak recorded in March this year. Although BTC has crossed the $70,000 threshold multiple times since then, it has yet to set a new ATH.

Related Reading: Bitcoin Taps $69,000 With ‘Bullish Setup’ As US Elections Near: New ATH Soon?

According to a recent report from the cryptocurrency trading platform Bitfinex, Bitcoin could be on track for a new ATH shortly after the US presidential election. Bitcoin is often seen as a “Trump trade,” exhibiting a strong correlation with Donald Trump’s election odds.

For example, after a 6% decline last week, BTC has regained all losses, coinciding with Trump’s rising election odds on Polymarket, a decentralized prediction market platform. 

At the time of writing, Trump leads with a 66.1% chance of winning versus Democratic candidate Kamala Harris, who stands at 33.9%. However, opinion polls show a close race, making the election outcome uncertain.

polymarket
Source: Polymarket

A possible Trump victory is stirring the options market. According to the report, while short-term volatility may increase closer to election results, BTC’s long-term bullish outlook remains intact. It states:

Options expiring on key dates around the election are commanding higher premiums, with implied volatility expected to peak at 100 daily vol on November 8th, just after Election Day – indicating that the market is bracing for potential turbulence. Regardless of the election outcome, short-term volatility is expected to be higher than usual though we remain confident in longer-term price appreciation.

It is worth highlighting that BTC dipped as low as $52,756 in September. However, the premier digital asset rallied almost 30% in October, inspiring some confidence in the “Uptober” narrative.

Seasonality Is On Bitcoin’s Side

The report emphasizes that BTC is positioned to benefit from “favorable Q4 seasonality.” Historically, Q4 has been profitable for BTC during halving years, giving a median quarterly return of 31.34%. 

Related Reading: Bitcoin To $200,000 By 2025 End Is ‘Conservative’ Target, Analyst Predicts

The buildup in call options expiring December 27 – especially at the $80,000 strike price – also bolsters BTC’s Q4 2024 bullish outlook. The report adds:

As options open interest climbs to new highs, the market is showing signs of positioning for a post-election surge, potentially propelling Bitcoin towards—and beyond—its all-time high of $73,666.

In similar news earlier this month, crypto research firm K33 Research remarked that the latest positive developments in the FTX fiasco propel Bitcoin’s bullish Q4 narrative.

BTC trades at $71,110 at press time, up 3.1% in the past 24 hours and about 3.5% away from its current ATH. Whether BTC will continue its upward trend through the rest of the quarter or face another rejection remains to be seen.

bitcoin
BTC trades at $71,110 on the daily chart | Source: BTCUSDT on TradingView.com
Featured Image from Unsplash.com, Charts from Polymarket and TradingView.com
Editorial Process for bitcoinist is centered on delivering thoroughly researched, accurate, and unbiased content. We uphold strict sourcing standards, and each page undergoes diligent review by our team of top technology experts and seasoned editors. This process ensures the integrity, relevance, and value of our content for our readers.
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Ash Tiwari

Ash Tiwari

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Ash is a seasoned freelance editor and writer with extensive experience in the blockchain and cryptocurrency industry. Over the course of his career, he has contributed to major publications, playing a key role in shaping informative, timely content related to decentralized finance (DeFi), cryptocurrency trends, and blockchain innovation. His ability to break down complex topics has allowed both seasoned professionals and newcomers to the industry to benefit from his work. Beyond these specific roles, Ash's writing expertise spans a wide array of content, including news updates, long-form analysis, and thought leadership pieces. He has helped multiple platforms maintain high editorial standards, ensuring that articles not only inform but also engage readers through clarity and in-depth research. His work reflects a deep understanding of the rapidly evolving blockchain ecosystem, making him a valuable contributor in a field where staying current is essential. In addition to his writing work, Ash has developed a strong skill set in managing content teams. He has led diverse groups of writers and researchers, overseeing the editorial process from topic selection, approval, editing, to final publication. His leadership ensured that content production was timely, accurate, and aligned with the strategic goals of the platforms he worked with. This has not only strengthened his expertise in content strategy but also honed his project management and team coordination skills. Ash's ability to combine technical expertise with editorial oversight is further bolstered by his knowledge of blockchain analysis tools such as Etherscan, Dune Analytics, and Santiment. These tools have provided him with the data necessary to create well-researched, insightful articles that offer deeper market perspectives. Whether it’s tracking the movement of digital assets or analyzing blockchain transactions, his analytical approach adds value to the content he produces, ensuring readers receive accurate and actionable information. In the realm of content creation, Ash is not limited to just cryptocurrency markets. He has demonstrated versatility in covering other emerging technologies, market trends, and digital transformation across various industries. His in-depth research, coupled with a sharp editorial eye, has made him a sought-after professional in the freelance writing community. From developing editorial calendars to managing content delivery schedules, he has honed a meticulous approach to project management that ensures timely, high-quality work delivery. Throughout his freelance career, Ash has consistently focused on improving audience engagement through well-researched, insightful, and relevant content. His ability to adapt to the evolving needs of clients, whether it's enhancing the visibility of digital platforms or producing thought-provoking pieces for a wide range of audiences, sets him apart as a dynamic force in the field of digital content creation. His contributions have helped to shape a well-rounded portfolio that showcases his versatility, technical expertise, and dedication to elevating the standards of journalism in blockchain and related sectors.

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