For the Bitcoin price, the course for the rest of January may have been set today. The question was: Will Bitcoin continue its mini-bull run or will there be a correction? This was decided by today’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) release in the US at 8:30 am EST.
The baseline was relatively clear. Most estimates agreed that 6.5% is the magic line that will decide whether it is a bull or bear market in the short term. If the figure is 6.3% or lower, there will be a bull run as the US central bank projections from the last FOMC are no longer credible and will be thrown overboard.
At 6.3% to 6.5%, the market is likely to celebrate with restraint, although this may already be priced in. At 6.5% to 7.1%, there will be a sell-off.
And the estimates were spot on. The CPI came in at 6.5%
JP Morgan had released its own game plan and called for a 65% chance that CPI will be between 6.4% and 6.6%, which could trigger a 1.5% to 2% upside move in the S&P 500, according to the banking giant.
The two less likely scenarios, according to JP Morgan, are that CPI falls below 6.4% (20% chance), which could mean a 3% to 3.5% pump for the S&P 500. In the worst-case scenario, CPI is above 6.6% (1,5%), which could mean a 2.5% to 3.5% downside for the S&P 500, according to JP Morgan.
CPI consensus for this week’s release is 6.5% YoY.
Here’s JP Morgan’s game plan… pic.twitter.com/U6qb2rDUlP
— Ayesha Tariq, CFA (@AyeshaTariq) January 11, 2023
As Bitcoin trades with a higher beta, the CPI print today should result in an even more volatile crypto market. It should also be taken into account that the BTC price has already experienced a strong run in the run-up to the release; this makes the market all the more sensitive to the CPI figure.
Even if the value is below the previous month at 7.1%, a significant decline will be necessary to please the high expectations of the market.
Bitcoin Price – Levels To Watch Today
A look at the 1-hour chart reveals that Bitcoin investors have front-ran the release of the supposedly positive CPI data. Within the last 24 hours, the BTC price has risen by 4.2% and was at $18,196 at press time.
With that, the Bitcoin price is facing upside resistance at $18,238. If the data is favorable, it should be an easy task for Bitcoin to break through this resistance. If the CPI is above 6.5%, the bulls will have to defend the support at $17,609 first. However, the even more important level of support for Bitcoin is at $17,322.
A look at the 1-day chart reveals a similar picture. On the upside, the range between $18.238 and $18.382 is likely to be crucial in determining whether the Bitcoin price will soon trade back above $19,000, which is roughly where the next key resistance zone awaits.
Bitcoin price eyeing $19,000 on one-day chart | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com
