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Crypto

Crypto Winter Might Be Over, Says Morgan Stanley, All Eyes On April 2024

Ronaldo Marquez
by Ronaldo Marquez
1 year ago
·
Posted in Crypto News
Trusted Editorial content, reviewed by leading industry experts and seasoned editors. Ad Disclosure

According to a report by the global investment bank Morgan Stanley, signs indicate that the cyclical “crypto winter” bear market, which has plagued the cryptocurrency industry, may finally end. 

The report explores the historical pattern of Bitcoin’s (BTC) performance following halving events that occur approximately every four years. Furthermore, the report estimates that the next halving event could occur around April 2024.

The Cyclical Nature Of Crypto Markets

Per the report, Bitcoin, the dominant cryptocurrency, is a barometer for the overall crypto market. One distinctive feature of Bitcoin is its halving process, which creates scarcity and helps maintain its value. 

Every four years, the number of BTC generated every 10 minutes is halved. This deliberate reduction in supply has historically affected Bitcoin’s price, often triggering a bullish market rally. 

Previous cycles have witnessed three notable bull runs that lasted 12 to 18 months after each halving event.

Related Reading: 2025 Deadline Set: Basel Watchdog Demands Public Reporting Of Bank Crypto Holdings

The four-year cryptocurrency cycle aligns with the seasons, providing a framework to understand market behavior:

According to Morgan Stanley, summer represents the phase immediately following a halving event, during which Bitcoin’s price gains are typically observed until it reaches a new peak.

Fall signifies when Bitcoin surpasses its previous high, attracting media attention, new investors, and businesses. This phase indicates that the bull market is nearing its end.

Winter characterizes the bear-market decline, initiated by profit-taking and selling pressure from investors, resulting in price drops. This phase persists until the next market trough, typically around 13 months.

Spring is the phase leading up to the next halving event, during which Bitcoin’s price generally recovers from the cycle’s low point. However, investor interest tends to remain relatively weak during this period.

Gauging Indicators To Ascertain The Transition From Winter To Spring

Determining whether crypto spring has truly arrived requires considering several factors. These include the time elapsed since the last peak, the magnitude of Bitcoin’s drawdown from its high, miner capitulation, the Bitcoin price-to-thermocap multiple, exchange-related issues, and price action. 

These indicators can provide insights into whether the market has reached a trough or is still experiencing crypto winter.

Related Reading: Sam Bankman-Fried Trial: Court Exposes Evidence FTX Founder’s Lawyers Tried To Hide

While the report suggests that crypto winter may be in the past and crypto spring is on the horizon, it emphasizes the importance of learning more about the crypto market’s cyclical tendencies. 

Crypto
The daily chart shows BTC’s sideways price action over the past 24 hours. Source: BTCUSDT on TradingView.com

BTC is trading at $28,500, showing a modest recovery in the past 24 hours after an unsuccessful attempt to stabilize above $30,000 on Monday, followed by a subsequent decline to the $28,000.

Notwithstanding this recent volatility, Bitcoin has maintained substantial gains across various time frames. It has experienced a notable surge of 7.4% over the past seven days, 4% over the past fourteen days, 5% over the past thirty days, and an impressive 49% surge over one year.

Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com 

Editorial Process for bitcoinist is centered on delivering thoroughly researched, accurate, and unbiased content. We uphold strict sourcing standards, and each page undergoes diligent review by our team of top technology experts and seasoned editors. This process ensures the integrity, relevance, and value of our content for our readers.
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Ronaldo Marquez

Ronaldo Marquez

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Ronaldo is a seasoned crypto enthusiast with over four years of experience in the field. He is passionate about exploring the vast and dynamic world of decentralized finance (DeFi) and its practical applications for achieving economic sovereignty. Ronaldo is constantly seeking to expand his knowledge and expertise in the DeFi space, as he believes it holds tremendous potential for transforming the traditional financial landscape.

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