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The Four-Year Cycle Is Dead: Matt Hougan Breaks Down The New Crypto Era

The 4-Year Cycle Is Dead: Matt Hougan Breaks Down The New Crypto Era

Sebastian Villafuerte
by Sebastian Villafuerte
1 month ago
·
Posted in Crypto News
Trusted Editorial content, reviewed by leading industry experts and seasoned editors. Ad Disclosure

This year, the crypto market has entered uncharted territory. New structural dynamics are reshaping how investors view the space, calling into question the long-held belief in the classic four-year cycle. Historically, Bitcoin’s halving events and market boom-bust patterns have followed a predictable rhythm—but 2025 is breaking that mold.

Related Reading: Galaxy Digital Unloads 22,700 Bitcoin To Exchanges As Selling Accelerates

Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise Asset Management, believes the industry has entered a new era. In a recent analysis, he argued that the traditional four-year cycle is no longer a reliable framework for understanding crypto market behavior. According to Hougan, the two key drivers behind this shift are the weakening of the forces that created earlier cycles—such as the diminishing impact of halvings and blow-up risk—and second, the emergence of larger, longer-term trends that don’t align with the old pattern.

From the rise of crypto ETFs to a surge in institutional adoption and regulatory progress, Hougan sees multi-year forces beginning to dominate market direction. As Wall Street capital begins flowing into digital assets, and regulatory clarity grows with legislation like the GENIUS Act, investors may need to recalibrate their expectations.

Long-Term Forces Reshaping Crypto’s Market Structure

According to Hougan, each halving becomes “half as important” every four years, reducing its impact on market momentum. Unlike 2018 and 2022, when the interest rate environment added pressure to risk assets, today’s monetary backdrop is more favorable to crypto.

Additionally, blow-up risks from unregulated players are fading as regulation improves and institutionalization advances. Hougan notes that the rise of regulated entities and better transparency has stabilized the market and removed some of the cyclical fragility.

He also points to a more significant, emerging risk: the growing influence of Treasury companies that hold and move large amounts of crypto. Their potential to influence markets on a short-term basis is substantial and worth monitoring.

At the same time, larger forces are now in motion. The shift of capital into crypto ETFs marks the beginning of a 5–10 year trend that started in 2024. Institutional adoption is only just beginning, with pensions and endowments starting to explore the asset class. Regulatory momentum kicked off in January 2025, and Wall Street capital is only beginning to flow following the passage of the Genius Act this month.

Related Reading: Galaxy Digital Breaks Record With $9 Billion Bitcoin Sale For Estate Planning

“These long-term pro-crypto forces will overwhelm the classic ‘four-year cycle’ forces,” Hougan said. He believes 2026 will be a strong year—not because of another hype-driven surge, but because of what he calls a “sustained steady boom” rather than a super-cycle. While acknowledging that volatility will persist, Hougan emphasizes that crypto’s maturation is real and accelerating. Investors may need to recalibrate their strategies for this new era.

Crypto Long-Term Trend Strengthens

The monthly logarithmic chart of the total crypto market cap reveals a clear long-term uptrend, currently sitting around $3.82 trillion. After a prolonged consolidation phase that began in mid-2022, the market has steadily climbed and is now approaching its all-time high range near the $3.9 trillion–$4 trillion mark. This level acted as a significant resistance zone during the previous cycle and remains a key psychological barrier.

Crypto Market Cap logarithmic chart | Source TOTAL chart on TradingView
Crypto Market Cap logarithmic chart | Source: TOTAL chart on TradingView

From a technical perspective, the 50-month simple moving average (SMA) continues to slope upward and currently sits at $1.88 trillion, well below the current market value, reflecting strong macro support. Additionally, volume has picked up significantly in recent months—especially during the last two green candles—indicating renewed investor confidence and institutional inflows, consistent with the narrative of growing ETF adoption and broader regulatory clarity.

Related Reading: Trump’s WLFI Ethereum Bet Grows: Wallet Now Holds $281M In ETH

The market structure also shows higher lows and higher highs on the monthly timeframe, signaling that the bullish trend remains intact. As long as the crypto market cap continues to hold above $3.2 trillion and makes another monthly close above $3.8 trillion, the probability of a breakout toward uncharted territory increases significantly.

Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView

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Sebastian Villafuerte

Sebastian Villafuerte

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Sebastian's journey into the world of crypto began four years ago, driven by a fascination with the potential of blockchain technology to revolutionize financial systems. His initial exploration focused on understanding the intricacies of various crypto projects, particularly those focused on building innovative financial solutions. Through countless hours of research and learning, Sebastian developed a deep understanding of the underlying technologies, market dynamics, and potential applications of cryptocurrencies. As his knowledge grew, Sebastian felt compelled to share his insights with others. He began actively contributing to online discussions on platforms like X and LinkedIn, focusing on fintech and crypto-related content. His goal was to expose valuable trends and insights to a wider audience, fostering a deeper understanding of the rapidly evolving crypto landscape. Sebastian's contributions quickly gained recognition, and he became a trusted voice in the online crypto community. To further enhance his expertise, Sebastian pursued a UC Berkeley Fintech: Frameworks, Applications, and Strategies certification. This rigorous program equipped him with valuable skills and knowledge regarding Financial Technology, bridging the gap between traditional finance (TradFi) and decentralized finance (DeFi). The certification deepened his understanding of the broader financial landscape and its intersection with blockchain technology. Sebastian's passion for finance and writing is evident in his work. He enjoys delving into financial research, analyzing market trends, and exploring the latest developments in the crypto space. In his spare time, Sebastian can often be found immersed in charts, studying 10-K forms, or engaging in thought-provoking discussions about the future of finance. Sebastian's journey as a crypto analyst and investor has been marked by a relentless pursuit of knowledge and a dedication to sharing his insights. His ability to navigate the complex world of crypto, combined with his passion for financial research and communication, makes him a valuable asset to the industry. As the crypto landscape continues to evolve, Sebastian remains at the forefront, providing valuable insights and contributing to the growth of this revolutionary technology.

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