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Solana SOL news

Solana Drops 50%—Asset Manager Warns ‘The Casino Is Collapsing’

Jake Simmons
by Jake Simmons
7 months ago
·
Posted in Solana
Trusted Editorial content, reviewed by leading industry experts and seasoned editors. Ad Disclosure

Solana (SOL) has plummeted 50% in almost a straight line over the past five weeks, a decline that coincides with heightened market volatility, speculative frenzy in memecoins, and looming sell pressure from the upcoming FTX estate unlock. Crypto asset manager Travis Kling, founder of Ikigai Asset Management, has drawn attention to the broader implications of the sell-off, warning that the once-thriving investment thesis of “owning the casino” may be unraveling in real-time.

“Solana Is Like A Fentanyl-Laced Casino”

A significant catalyst behind Solana’s decline is the anticipated March 1 unlock of 11.2 million SOL held by the FTX estate. The event is expected to introduce substantial sell pressure, with market participants speculating that a significant portion of these tokens will be sold via over-the-counter (OTC) transactions at a discount to the time-weighted average price (TWAP).

Related Reading: Solana’s On-Chain Metrics Show Significant Decline in Network Activity, A Temporary Slowdown Or Larger Trend?

“It would not be surprising at all if many of those 11.2 million SOL were going to be sold in bulk via OTC,” Kling noted in a recent post on X. “And that the price for that sale would be calculated as a discount to TWAP, and that TWAP period would be going on right now. So buyers are incentivized for price to be lower.”

The selling pressure from these unlocks is exacerbated by the fact that buyers of FTX-locked SOL are sitting on unrealized profits despite the recent correction. Many of these holders may now be looking to hedge their positions or take profits in anticipation of increased liquidity.

Beyond the FTX overhang, Kling highlighted memecoin speculation as a destabilizing force within Solana’s ecosystem. The timing of SOL’s price peak coincided “EXACTLY with the launch and collapse of TRUMP and MELANIA,” referencing the explosive rise and subsequent implosion of politically-themed memecoins.

Kling further pointed to a series of high-profile memecoin launches—including Central African Republic, Changpeng Zhao’s dog, Dave Portnoy’s token, and the Javier Milei-inspired coin—as evidence of a broader unsustainable frenzy.

Related Reading: Solana More Resilient Than Bitcoin, Ethereum In This Metric, Glassnode Reveals

“Well, over the last five weeks, we got TRUMP/MELANIA. Then Central African Republic. Then Changpeng’s dog. Then Dave Portnoy. And then the Javier Milei crescendo. So obviously, ridiculously extractive. Pointless. Nihilistic. Embarrassing. All bad. No good.”

This heightened speculation has led Kling to question whether the long-standing thesis of “owning the casino”—a phrase often used to describe institutional demand for Solana as a high-throughput blockchain catering to speculative trading—remains valid.

For nearly two years, institutional investors and high-net-worth individuals have been pitched the idea that Solana represents the “casino” of crypto, where the bulk of trading activity and on-chain speculation occurs. However, Kling now believes this narrative is undergoing a fundamental shift.

“So what you may be seeing in real-time is a dismantling and unraveling of this investment thesis to ‘own the casino.’ The casino is too damaging to its customers. The games the casino empowers are quite literally killing the customers.”

He reinforced his analogy with a stark comparison: “Imagine a casino that puts just a pinch of fentanyl in every cocktail. Short term, this looks like a great strategy. Customers can’t stay away! But pretty quickly you start losing customers. Soon, it’s just fent dealers and a few zombies left. Wanna own THAT casino?”

Despite the current market turbulence, Kling noted a potential bullish catalyst on the horizon: the approval of spot Solana ETFs. While timelines remain uncertain, he suggested that demand for a spot SOL ETF could exceed that of Ethereum’s (ETH)—at least based on investor sentiment two months ago.

“Spot SOL ETFs should be coming pretty soon. Maybe in the next 1-3 months. Maybe 6. Maybe year-end on the longer side. IDK. But pretty soon,” he wrote. However, institutional sentiment may now be shifting in real-time. The extent to which the “casino” thesis has eroded, combined with ongoing regulatory uncertainty surrounding Solana-based financial products, could impact the actual demand for a spot ETF once launched.

At press time, SOL traded at $140.

Solana price
SOL bounces from the 0.5 Fib level, 1-week chart | Source: SOLUSDT on TradingView.com
Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com
Editorial Process for bitcoinist is centered on delivering thoroughly researched, accurate, and unbiased content. We uphold strict sourcing standards, and each page undergoes diligent review by our team of top technology experts and seasoned editors. This process ensures the integrity, relevance, and value of our content for our readers.
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Jake Simmons

Jake Simmons

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Jake Simmons has been a Bitcoin enthusiast since 2016. Ever since he heard about Bitcoin, he has been studying the topic every day and trying to share his knowledge with others. His goal is to contribute to Bitcoin's financial revolution, which will replace the fiat money system. Besides BTC and crypto, Jake studied Business Informatics at a university. After graduation in 2017, he has been working in the blockchain and crypto sector. You can follow Jake on Twitter at @realJakeSimmons.

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