The price of Bitcoin took the crypto community by surprise when it broke the resistance level around $94,000 over the past week. This has sparked questions on whether this was just a mere bear market rally or the bull run is back on track. Here’s what CryptoQuant, which called the bear market earlier, has to say about the latest Bitcoin price rally.
BTC Still In Bear Market Despite Improving Conditions: CryptoQuant
On Friday, January 16, blockchain analytics firm CryptoQuant revealed in its latest report that the Bitcoin demand conditions are becoming less negative following the recent rally above $97,000. This on-chain observation comes a few weeks after the firm said the BTC apparent demand — at the time — was pointing to the start of a bear market.
The confirmation of the bear market came after the price of Bitcoin fell below the 365-day moving average — a level that has historically determined bull and bear phases. However, the premier cryptocurrency has been on an upward trajectory since breaking beneath this level, up by approximately 21% since late November 2025.
Source: CryptoQuant
In its research report, CryptoQuant noted that while the price of BTX is approaching the 365-day moving average, it has yet to reclaim the technical level, which currently lies around $101,000. The analytics firm further mentioned acts as a “regime boundary” during bear markets — as seen in past cycles, triggering price rejections before renewed downside.
In addition to the technical hurdles, CryptoQuant noted that while the Bitcoin demand conditions have improved “at the margin”, they still signal market weakness. “US spot indicators such as the Coinbase Premium briefly turned positive, while U.S. ETFs merely paused net selling after offloading ~54K BTC in November, rather than showing sustained accumulation,” the firm added.
CryptoQuant also highlighted that on-chain spot demand continues to decline, with apparent demand down by about 67,000 BTC over the past 30 days. Meanwhile, the Bitcoin spot exchange-traded fund inflows have broadly remained below levels often correlated with durable bullish market recoveries.
At the same time, the rising BTC exchange inflows do not spread optimism but rather increase downside risk. Data from CryptoQuant shows that transfers to centralized exchanges climbed to a 7-day average of approximately 39,000 BTC, the highest level since late November. According to the firm, this is a tell-tale sign of increasing sell-side pressure after relief rallies.
Going by this, it appears that while the market conditions are somewhat improving favorably for price, Bitcoin is still in the bear cycle that started less than two months ago.
Bitcoin Price At A Glance
As of this writing, the price of BTC stands at around $95,200, reflecting no significant movement in the past 24 hours.
The price of BTC on the daily timeframe | Source: BTCUSDT chart on TradingView
