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"Bitcoin Cycle Theory Is Dead" – Crypto CEO Apologizes For Bearish Misfire

“Bitcoin Cycle Theory Is Dead” – Crypto CEO Apologizes For Bearish Misfire

Sebastian Villafuerte
by Sebastian Villafuerte
1 month ago
·
Posted in Bitcoin News
Trusted Editorial content, reviewed by leading industry experts and seasoned editors. Ad Disclosure

Bitcoin is undergoing a notable pullback after trading within a tight consolidation range for the past two weeks. The price has dropped approximately 6% from its recent all-time high of $123,000, sparking increased volatility and growing debate among analysts. This correction, while still within historical norms, has prompted deeper reflections on market structure.

Related Reading: Trump’s WLFI Ethereum Bet Grows: Wallet Now Holds $281M In ETH

Amid the latest price action, CryptoQuant Founder and CEO Ki Young Ju made a striking statement, declaring that the traditional “Bitcoin Cycle theory is dead.” Ju admitted that his past predictions were rooted in this now-outdated framework — one that assumed whales accumulate BTC early in the cycle and sell as retail investors pile in. However, he noted that this pattern no longer reflects current market behavior.

The shift marks a maturing market, where spot ETFs, treasuries, and sovereign funds are playing a much larger role. As Bitcoin tests lower support levels, investors will be watching whether the asset continues to trade like a macro instrument — or reverts to its historical, more speculative patterns.

Bitcoin Enters a New Era as Institutional Holders Redefine Market Cycles

According to CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju, Bitcoin’s current market dynamics represent a fundamental shift from previous cycles. In a recent post on X, Ju explained that during the last major cycle, whales sold into rising retail demand, marking the typical market top. This time, however, the pattern has reversed. “Old whales are selling to new long-term whales,” Ju wrote, pointing to the growing presence of institutional players with long investment horizons.

He noted that institutional adoption is far more significant than most believed. With the rise of spot Bitcoin ETFs, corporate treasuries, and sovereign interest, Bitcoin is evolving into a globally recognized macro asset. This shift is so profound that Ju admitted his previous call that the bull cycle was over was based on outdated assumptions. “I sincerely apologize if my prediction impacted your investment,” he posted. “I’ll be more careful with forecasts and focus on providing data-driven insights.”

Ju also remarked that trading Bitcoin now “feels pointless,” as the number of committed holders surpasses that of active traders. This transition to an institutional-led market introduces a new type of cycle — one characterized by stability, strategic accumulation, and long-term conviction.

Related Reading: US Government Bitcoin Reserves Still Intact: 198,000 BTC Remain Untouched

For many investors and analysts, this change marks uncharted territory. It requires new frameworks for understanding Bitcoin’s value and trajectory. As Bitcoin matures into an accepted financial instrument, traditional cycle theories — rooted in retail-driven speculation — may no longer apply.

BTC Price Action Details

Bitcoin has broken below the tight two-week range between $120,800 and $115,700, signaling the start of a deeper correction. After reaching an all-time high near $123K, BTC failed to sustain momentum and retraced sharply, now hovering around the critical $115.8K level. This move coincides with growing volume and a close below the 50-period SMA (blue), indicating a potential shift in short-term trend.

BTC testing key support level | Source: BTCUSDT chart on TradingView
BTC testing key support level | Source: BTCUSDT chart on TradingView

Despite the drop, BTC remains above both the 100-period (green) and 200-period (red) SMAs, which are currently sitting at $110,104 and $105,000, respectively. These moving averages suggest that the broader bullish structure is intact, although the market is clearly under short-term pressure.

Related Reading: 21Shares Seeks Approval For First Spot ONDO ETF

If BTC holds above $115,724 in the coming sessions, the move could be seen as a shakeout before another leg up. However, if bears push the price below this level with strong volume confirmation, further downside toward $112K–$110K is likely.

Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView

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Sebastian Villafuerte

Sebastian Villafuerte

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Sebastian's journey into the world of crypto began four years ago, driven by a fascination with the potential of blockchain technology to revolutionize financial systems. His initial exploration focused on understanding the intricacies of various crypto projects, particularly those focused on building innovative financial solutions. Through countless hours of research and learning, Sebastian developed a deep understanding of the underlying technologies, market dynamics, and potential applications of cryptocurrencies. As his knowledge grew, Sebastian felt compelled to share his insights with others. He began actively contributing to online discussions on platforms like X and LinkedIn, focusing on fintech and crypto-related content. His goal was to expose valuable trends and insights to a wider audience, fostering a deeper understanding of the rapidly evolving crypto landscape. Sebastian's contributions quickly gained recognition, and he became a trusted voice in the online crypto community. To further enhance his expertise, Sebastian pursued a UC Berkeley Fintech: Frameworks, Applications, and Strategies certification. This rigorous program equipped him with valuable skills and knowledge regarding Financial Technology, bridging the gap between traditional finance (TradFi) and decentralized finance (DeFi). The certification deepened his understanding of the broader financial landscape and its intersection with blockchain technology. Sebastian's passion for finance and writing is evident in his work. He enjoys delving into financial research, analyzing market trends, and exploring the latest developments in the crypto space. In his spare time, Sebastian can often be found immersed in charts, studying 10-K forms, or engaging in thought-provoking discussions about the future of finance. Sebastian's journey as a crypto analyst and investor has been marked by a relentless pursuit of knowledge and a dedication to sharing his insights. His ability to navigate the complex world of crypto, combined with his passion for financial research and communication, makes him a valuable asset to the industry. As the crypto landscape continues to evolve, Sebastian remains at the forefront, providing valuable insights and contributing to the growth of this revolutionary technology.

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