It is no secret that Bitcoin miners are currently experiencing significant financial stress, especially following the completion of the fourth halving event. As a result, these vital network participants are being forced to offload their BTC holdings to offset the increasing operational costs.
Interestingly, the latest on-chain data shows that the Bitcoin market is experiencing a wave of capitulation from miners that is reminiscent of December 2022, barely a month after the FTX collapse. The question now is — what happened the last time and how could it impact the current cycle?
Is BTC Ready To Resume Its Bull Run?
In a recent post on X, CryptoQuant’s head of research Julio Moreno revealed that the Bitcoin miner capitulation has hit levels comparable to December 2022. December 2022 also represented the bottom of the previous cycle after the collapse of FTX.
The fall of the Sam Bankman-Fried-led exchange marked a low point for the crypto industry, triggering widespread panic and sell-offs. Ultimately, this enormous selling pressure potentiated a sharp decline in the price of Bitcoin.
At the time, the capitulation among the Bitcoin miners was characterized by a 7.6% drawdown in the Network True Hashrate. According to Julio Moreno’s post on X, the Network True Hashrate Drawdown is also currently at -7.6%.
A chart showing BTC's Network True Hashrate Drawdown and price | Source: jjcmoreno/X
The Network True Hashrate Drawdown metric calculates the reduction in the computational power dedicated to mining Bitcoin, reflecting miners’ struggles to maintain operations in a tight financial condition. Naturally, the significant drawdown in the Network True Hashrate and the associated miner capitulation have several potential impacts on the Bitcoin price.
As seen over the past few weeks, these can lead to an increase in selling pressure, as miners look to sell their BTC holdings. This could put serious downward pressure on the price of Bitcoin, driving its value to lower levels.
At the same time, periods of significant miner capitulation have historically preceded market recoveries. Moreover, as highlighted in the post, the Bitcoin market reached the cycle bottom the last time (December 2022) the Network True Hashrate Drawdown was at this point. This suggests that BTC could really be primed for a price rebound soon.
Bitcoin Price At A Glance
As of this writing, the price of BTC stands around $60,889, reflecting a 0.2% increase in the past 24 hours. The premier cryptocurrency is still deep in the red on the weekly timeframe, with an over 5% decline in the past week.
The price of BTC on the verge of $62,000 on the daily timeframe | Source: BTCUSDT chart on TradingView
