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Bitcoin Realized Supply Ratio Near Historic Lows – Local Bottom Or Bear Market Incoming?

Bitcoin Realized Supply Ratio Near Historic Lows – Local Bottom Or Bear Market Incoming?

Sebastian Villafuerte
by Sebastian Villafuerte
5 months ago
·
Posted in Bitcoin News
Trusted Editorial content, reviewed by leading industry experts and seasoned editors. Ad Disclosure

Bitcoin is currently trading above critical support, but bulls are struggling to reclaim the $90,000 level — a threshold that could signal the start of a meaningful recovery rally. Despite brief rebounds, BTC remains under pressure, with market sentiment still fragile. US President Donald Trump’s recent announcement of new tariffs has only added to the uncertainty. His erratic behavior continues to shake financial markets, pushing risk assets like Bitcoin into deeper volatility.

Related Reading: BTC Coinbase Spot Price Lags Despite Large BTC Purchases – Is US Demand Weakening?

Now, Bitcoin faces a crucial test. Selling pressure appears to be mounting once again, and if bulls can’t regain control soon, the market could slip into a broader correction. On-chain data adds weight to this concern. According to CryptoQuant, the Price to Distribution by Realized Supply Ratio — a key indicator that compares Bitcoin’s price to realized supply — is currently at a historically low level.

This metric typically signals one of two outcomes: either a local bottom in a bull market or the early stages of a bear market. With BTC stuck between critical resistance and support, traders are watching closely. Whether Bitcoin rebounds or breaks down from here may define the tone for the coming weeks in the crypto space.

Bitcoin Correction Deepens Amid Economic Turmoil

Bitcoin is trading at critical levels, showing signs that the correction phase that began in January may not be over. BTC is now down 22% from its all-time high, and momentum continues to lean bearish as macroeconomic instability and trade war fears drive widespread market uncertainty. With global financial markets rattled by tariffs and growing geopolitical tensions, risk assets like Bitcoin are facing intense selling pressure.

Investors are becoming increasingly cautious, with many analysts now warning of a potential recession. Safe havens such as gold are rallying, while equities continue to slide — a classic signal of risk-off sentiment. In this environment, Bitcoin is struggling to regain bullish momentum, unable to break above critical resistance zones.

Top analyst Axel Adler shared important insights supporting this cautious outlook. He pointed to a key on-chain metric that tracks Bitcoin’s price in relation to its “realized supply.” The chart uses a 30-day simple moving average (SMA-30D) of this ratio, represented by a purple line. Historically, when this line drops below a defined lower boundary, it has indicated either a local correction bottom or the start of a bear market — both times Bitcoin was significantly undervalued.

Bitcoin Price to Distribution by Realized Supply Ratio | Source: Axel Adler on X
Bitcoin Price to Distribution by Realized Supply Ratio | Source: Axel Adler on X

The chart highlights two previous instances of this signal during major correction phases: one following the COVID-19 crash and another during the mining ban in China. With the indicator once again nearing these historic levels, it suggests Bitcoin may currently be undervalued. However, whether this marks the end of the correction or the beginning of a deeper bear cycle remains unclear.

Related Reading: BTC Advanced Sentiment Index Flags Strong Bullish Outlook – Insights

As uncertainty persists, all eyes remain on Bitcoin’s next move — with $81K acting as key support and $90K as the level bulls must reclaim to shift sentiment.

Technical Details: BTC Trades Below Key Moving Averages

Bitcoin is trading at $84,200 after several days of heightened volatility and sustained selling pressure. The recent pullback has pushed BTC below the 200-day moving average (MA) and exponential moving average (EMA), both of which are currently positioned around the $86,500 level. These indicators now act as key resistance, and bulls must reclaim and hold above them to shift momentum back in their favor.

BTC tradingbbelow the 200-day MA & EMA | Source: BTCUSDT chjart on TradingView
BTC trading below the 200-day MA & EMA | Source: BTCUSDT chart on TradingView

A successful move above $86,500 would be a strong technical signal, potentially opening the path to retest the $90,000 level — a key psychological and structural barrier. However, failure to reclaim these moving averages in the coming sessions would likely reinforce bearish sentiment and could lead to increased selling pressure.

Related Reading: BTC Enters Accumulation Phase – Spot Selling Fades And Funding Rates Turn Negative

If bulls lose control of the current support zone, a drop below the $81,000 mark becomes increasingly likely. This would mark a continuation of the correction that began in January and could drive Bitcoin into deeper consolidation or even a broader downtrend.

Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView 

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Sebastian Villafuerte

Sebastian Villafuerte

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Sebastian's journey into the world of crypto began four years ago, driven by a fascination with the potential of blockchain technology to revolutionize financial systems. His initial exploration focused on understanding the intricacies of various crypto projects, particularly those focused on building innovative financial solutions. Through countless hours of research and learning, Sebastian developed a deep understanding of the underlying technologies, market dynamics, and potential applications of cryptocurrencies. As his knowledge grew, Sebastian felt compelled to share his insights with others. He began actively contributing to online discussions on platforms like X and LinkedIn, focusing on fintech and crypto-related content. His goal was to expose valuable trends and insights to a wider audience, fostering a deeper understanding of the rapidly evolving crypto landscape. Sebastian's contributions quickly gained recognition, and he became a trusted voice in the online crypto community. To further enhance his expertise, Sebastian pursued a UC Berkeley Fintech: Frameworks, Applications, and Strategies certification. This rigorous program equipped him with valuable skills and knowledge regarding Financial Technology, bridging the gap between traditional finance (TradFi) and decentralized finance (DeFi). The certification deepened his understanding of the broader financial landscape and its intersection with blockchain technology. Sebastian's passion for finance and writing is evident in his work. He enjoys delving into financial research, analyzing market trends, and exploring the latest developments in the crypto space. In his spare time, Sebastian can often be found immersed in charts, studying 10-K forms, or engaging in thought-provoking discussions about the future of finance. Sebastian's journey as a crypto analyst and investor has been marked by a relentless pursuit of knowledge and a dedication to sharing his insights. His ability to navigate the complex world of crypto, combined with his passion for financial research and communication, makes him a valuable asset to the industry. As the crypto landscape continues to evolve, Sebastian remains at the forefront, providing valuable insights and contributing to the growth of this revolutionary technology.

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