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FTC lawsuit

Crypto News: Expectations For September Rate Cuts Drop Despite Powell’s Speech

Scott Matherson
by Scott Matherson
2 months ago
·
Posted in Crypto News
Trusted Editorial content, reviewed by leading industry experts and seasoned editors. Ad Disclosure

Last week, Federal Reverse Chairman Jerome Powell set the crypto community on fire after speaking at the annual Jackson Hold economic symposium. During his speech, Powell had hinted toward possible rate cuts that could happen in the month of September, and since rate cuts have been historically bullish for risk assets, this quickly triggered a rapid bullish response from the community. However, expectations for a rate cut seem to have dwindled in the last few weeks, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool.

Probability Of Rate Cuts Drops From 92% To 75%

Earlier in the month of August, Bitcoinist had reported that the CME Group’s FedWatch tool was showing a high 92% probability of rate cuts happening in the month of September. This had come after there were no rate cuts in July, turning all eyes on the next September 17 date, with only a 7.8% probability that the Fed will keep rates the same and 0% probability of a rate increase.

Related Reading: Latest RLUSD Stablecoin Could Propel Ripple To Limelight Amid Trillion-Dollar Predictions

However, as the month of September draws closer, the probability of a rate cut looks to be on the decline. According to the FedWatch website, there is now a 75% probability that the Federal Reserve will institute rate cuts on September 17. This marks a major difference in the numbers from earlier in the month, suggesting that market developments have triggered a much more conservative outlook.

Crypto Fed rate cuts
Source: FedWatch

The drop in the expectation of a rate cut has now moved into the more conservative territory of rates being kept the same. The tool shows that there is now a 25% probability that the Fed will choose to maintain rates as it did back in July. Interestingly, the probability of an interest rate hike in the month of September is still at 0%, showing no chance of this happening.

Why Rise In Optimism Could Affect Crypto

Despite the drop in the probability, optimism around a possible Fed rate cut is still high, as shown by data from Santiment. A report from the platform pointed out that social mentions of words like “fed”, “rate”, and “cut” have all hit a new all-time high. The report translates this as euphoria being very high, and for the crypto market, this could mean that it is headed for a top.

Related Reading: Chainlink Enters Critical Level As Bulls Gun For $40 — Here’s The Trend

Another thing that points toward a possible crypto top is the fact that Bitcoin balances on exchanges are on the rise once more. Usually, when investors send cryptocurrencies to exchanges, it means they are looking to sell, and such profit-taking could signal a top. As such, investors could benefit from taking a cautious stance as the market decides on a direction ahead of the FOMC meeting in September.

Crypto total market cap chart from TradingView.com
Total market cap still trending above $3.8 trillion | Source: Crypto Total Market Cap on TradingView.com
Featured image from Dall.E, chart from TradingView.com
Editorial Process for bitcoinist is centered on delivering thoroughly researched, accurate, and unbiased content. We uphold strict sourcing standards, and each page undergoes diligent review by our team of top technology experts and seasoned editors. This process ensures the integrity, relevance, and value of our content for our readers.
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Scott Matherson

Scott Matherson

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Scott Matherson is a leading crypto writer at Bitcoinist, who possesses a sharp analytical mind and a deep understanding of the digital currency landscape. Scott has earned a reputation for delivering thought-provoking and well-researched articles that resonate with both newcomers and seasoned crypto enthusiasts. Outside of his writing, Scott is passionate about promoting crypto literacy and often works to educate the public on the potential of blockchain.

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