Bitcoin Half of the Bitcoin Options Market Thinks BTC Will be Above $10k in 2020
Cole Petersen | May 19, 2020 | 18:00
- Bitcoin has continued to trade sideways within the mid-$9,000 region following its latest failed attempt to break above $10,000
- Bulls once again attempted to surmount this level earlier this morning, but their attempt was futile as the cryptocurrency faced another harsh rejection that has since led it to range sideways
- This comes as the options market suggests there’s a rather low probability BTC will set fresh highs in 2020
Bitcoin’s rally up towards $10,000 this morning was halted as soon as popular trading platform BitMEX faced an outage. News of this concerned some investors and led to decreased activity amongst buyers.
This resulted in BTC forming yet another rejection at just below the key $10,000 region.
It is a strong possibility that the cryptocurrency will begin flashing some signs of near-term weakness due to the number of rejections it has faced here over the past couple of weeks.
Roughly Half of the Options Market Thinks Bitcoin Will Be Above $10,000 by the End of The Year
Investors have mixed feelings about where BTC will go next – a trend elucidated while looking towards the mere 9% of the options market that believes Bitcoin will be trading at fresh all-time highs by the end of the year.
While contracts with an expiration date at the end of May largely bet that the cryptocurrency will be trading around $10,000, a good portion of traders do seem to believe that BTC will post some slight gains in the years ahead.
Data from blockchain research platform Skew elucidates this trend, showing that for options with expiration days in June, September, and December, roughly half of traders believe Bitcoin will be trading above $10,000.
For December in particular, the options market indicates that there’s a 9% probability that BTC is trading above $20,000 by the end of the year.
Image Courtesy of Skew
Here’s What Could Drive BTC to Fresh Highs This Year
As for what could help Bitcoin reach new highs, analysts have previously pointed to a massive multi-year wedge formation, noting that a confirmed breakout of this pattern could lead Bitcoin up to $40,000 or more.
“Chart 1 – The Perfect Wedge. If you use classic charting techniques, it gives you a price target of around $40,000,” macro investor Raoul Pal noted, later offering even higher price targets.
Image Courtesy of Raoul Pal
There are other models that forecast that Bitcoin will soon be trading significantly higher as well.
One such economic model that many investors point to is Bitcoin’s Stock-to-Flow, which forecasts that supply and demand dynamics will help propel the crypto past $100,000 by 2021.
Featured image from Unplash.
