Across prediction markets, on-chain dashboards, and sentiment trackers, a clear majority of Bitcoin investors have positioned themselves for further downside.
Although Bitcoin has since recovered above $60,000, the recent crash below the level over the weekend has led many crypto traders to believe that there’s going to be another crash to the final bottom. According to crypto analyst Winter Soldier, 64% of orders on prediction markets are now betting on BTC dropping below $50,000 this year.
64% Of Orders Are Betting Bitcoin Breaks Below $50,000
Prediction market Polymarket is currently pricing a 64% probability that Bitcoin hits $55,000 or lower before the end of 2026. This outlook was also noted in a bearish call by crypto analyst Winter Soldier, who noted that 65% of orders on prediction markets are now positioned for BTC to fall below $50,000 before the end of the year.
However, the analyst also compared the current setup with the previous cycle, when many traders believed $28,000 would hold as the final low. Bitcoin later fell to $19,000, then to $15,000, before the market finally reached the level of fear needed for a true reversal. That is why the analyst believes a crash to the $35,000 to $38,000 range from the current price action cannot be ruled out.
Bitcoin dropped about 78% in the last bear cycle before beginning its next major expansion. This cycle could be shallower because of ETFs and institutional participation, but still, $50,000 should not be assumed automatically as the floor simply because everyone is watching it.
The Chart Says BTC Is Cheap, But Not Safe Yet
The rainbow chart added to the analysis by Winter Soldier shows Bitcoin now sitting in the “BUY!” band, and the price has spent 24 days in that band compared to an average of 18 days. That makes Bitcoin look discounted relative to its long-term logarithmic trend.
The chart also shows only a 5.5% drop to the lower band and a 27.2% move to the upper band, which is another sign that BTC is closer to the lower end of the historical value range than the upper end.
However, the problem for bulls is that the price structure has not yet confirmed a reversal. Bitcoin has printed heavy red candles, lower highs, and lower lows, and sell volume has continued into the middle of the week. Everywhere you look, there’s supply and no demand. If the Bitcoin price bounces back into the range between $65,000 and $66,000, it’s most likely just gathering momentum to push lower, and this is a bull trap, not a buy signal.
The verdict is part of many predictions from a bearish camp that Bitcoin may still have one more painful leg to $50,000 before a durable bottom is formed. Interestingly, some analysts are calling for a further bottom below $50,000.
