Fear still hangs over the crypto market even as Bitcoin closed April with its strongest monthly gain in 12 months. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index registered a reading of 39 on Friday — firmly in “Fear” territory — a sign that many investors remain cautious despite the month’s upbeat finish.
Two Green Candles After A Long Dry Spell
Bitcoin returned 12% in April, its best monthly performance since April 2025, when it gained 14%. The gain ended a streak of five straight red monthly candles.
“After 5 consecutive red monthly candles, Bitcoin has now closed 2 in the green, causing some relief in the market,” crypto trader Daan Crypto Trades wrote on X.
$BTC April is done. May is here.
After 5 consecutive red monthly candles, Bitcoin has now closed 2 in the green, causing some relief in the market.
What do you think? Is May going to be red or green? 👇 https://t.co/u8IhgV8ahI pic.twitter.com/aihxkDEqQc
— Daan Crypto Trades (@DaanCrypto) May 1, 2026
Still, the April result came in just below the coin’s historical average for the month, which sits at 13%, according to CoinGlass data.
Bitcoin started April near $66,000 and is currently trading around $78,400 — still about 35% below its all-time high of $125,100, reached last October.
Analysts Split On What Happens Next
With May now open, market watchers are divided on where Bitcoin goes from here. Crypto analytics firm CryptoQuant issued a warning that the April rally may have been built on shaky ground.
Source: Coinglass
According to the firm, the move was driven largely by futures traders rather than deeper structural demand, raising the possibility of a multi-month price decline ahead.
On the other side of the debate, MN Trading Capital founder Michael van de Poppe argued that Bitcoin doesn’t need a headline-grabbing catalyst to push back past $100,000.
What narrative will bring #Bitcoin to $100K?
There doesn’t need to be a narrative that pushes the price upwards.
Price moves upwards, and the narrative will create itself.
At this point, it doesn’t feel like there’s ever a narrative again that will be moving the needle for…
— Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) May 1, 2026
“There doesn’t need to be a narrative that pushes the price upwards,” he wrote on X Friday. Bitcoin last traded above $100,000 on November 13 — about a month after a $19 billion crypto market liquidation event on October 10.
Crypto analyst Jelle offered a shorter-term take, writing simply: “We hit the ground running again next week.”
History Points To A Solid May — But It’s No Guarantee
Based on CoinGlass data, Bitcoin has historically returned an average of 7.78% in May, making it one of the more favorable months on the calendar.
Some market participants are leaning on that track record to stay optimistic. Reports indicate that many traders believe Bitcoin’s historical patterns tend to repeat, though analysts have long cautioned that past performance in crypto markets carries no real predictive weight.
Featured image from MetaAI, chart from TradingView
