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bitcoin btcusd post halving volatility
Nexo

Bitcoin Sees Third Lowest Volatility Since The Crypto Bubble First Began

Tony Spilotro by Tony Spilotro
2 years ago
in Bitcoin
0

Bitcoin price has been trading sideways for over forty days and counting. The crypto asset has been unable to break above $10,000 or remain below $9,000 for more than a few moments.

The sideways action has caused the third-lowest volatile point on record over the last four years. The first time started the last bull market; the last time caused a 50% drop – is the third time the charm?

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The massive, broader market collapse crushed cryptocurrencies and liquidated high leverage whales in the cascade of selling.

The selloff brought the market – and the world – to a pause.

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But stimulus money helped Bitcoin slowly claw its way back up to nearly $10,000. There, the asset continues to trade now after nearly two full months of sideways.

RELATED READING | FADING BITCOIN VOLATILITY VERSUS NASDAQ MAY SIGNAL BULL MARKET IS HERE

The coiling trading range has confined any attempts at a breakout to either direction thus far. The lack of activity has most crypto analysts looking for a massive move when the breakout does occur.

According to data, past breakouts from consolidation like this results in an over 20% move.

These breakouts, more often than not, result in a move to the upside. And consolidation typically doesn’t last for more than six weeks.

Only one time in the last several years did Bitcoin consolidated for longer. It resulted in the infamous drop in November 2018, where the asset fell by over 50%.

bitcoin btcusd post halving volatility

Bitcoin BTCUSD 3-Day Bollinger Band Width Chart | Source: TradingView

This Low Of Volatility Has Resulted In a Crypto Bull Market, Or a Dangerous Collapse

3-Day Bollinger Band Width is signaling that Bitcoin volatility has reached a low only touched three times over the last four years.

Bollinger Bands are a technical analysis toolset consisting of a simple moving average and two standard deviations. Those two standard deviations act as bands that widen and contract to measure volatility.

Only two other times other than now did the crypto asset reach such a low on 3-Day BTCUSD price charts.

The first time was during the just over one hundred days of sideways following the 2016 halving. It was reaching this low that set off the historical volatility that led Bitcoin to $20,000.

RELATED READING | BITCOIN HALVING FACTS: PAST PRICE DATA MAY SHED LIGHT ON WHAT’S TO COME

The following time was a period of tranquility before the epic plunge to $3,200 in late 2018. During this phase, Bitcoin traded sideways for 39 days after reaching the low point before breaking down.

If history repeats, the bearish scenario has Bitcoin breaking down within the next 40 more days. In the bullish scenario, Bitcoin trades for at least another 60 days. Both would put a breakout somewhere in August in either case.

There’s also perhaps no correlation at all to the data, and Bitcoin could be in the midst of a breakout even now. For now, there’s no denying that volatility is extremely low. And when it does reach such lows, an explosive move usually comes next.

Featured image from Shutterstock.
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Tony Spilotro

Tony Spilotro

I'm Tony Spilotro. Behind the pseudonym, I'm a digital media executive and global remote work leader with a decade of content experience and excellence. Here, I explore my newfound passions pertaining to privacy, finance, economics, politics, cryptography, property rights, and other libertarian-esque views. I am a Bitcoin evangelist, maximalist, and educator whenever I can be, helping to spread its message of freedom from government control, monetary policy mismanagement, and passing the buck - literally – to future generations. My journey from a curious retail crypto investor to a serious Bitcoin advocate, trader, and technical analyst is an unusual one, but life-changing nonetheless and has become less about money and more about a long-overdue revolution. While a firm believer in the laws governing math and science, I am profoundly fascinated by the impact of astrology and astronomy including moon and solar cycles and planetary alignment and their ability to influence and potentially predict markets. It hasn't yet clicked for me as to how to put anything to use, but I consider it my current rabbit hole I can't yet dig out of. My perspective of growing up alongside the internet, the dot com era, the Great Recession, and roots in video games collecting coins and rare items caused Bitcoin to immediately make sense to me. Through all of these lenses, I seek to produce content that is educational and entertaining, and I thank you sincerely for taking the time to read what I have to say. Please follow me on Twitter and feel free to drop me a line if you would like to work together.

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