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Bitcoin LTH Average Profits Hit 215% – Major Sell-Off Around The Corner?

Bitcoin LTH Average Profits Hit 215% – Major Sell-Off Around The Corner?

Sebastian Villafuerte
by Sebastian Villafuerte
1 month ago
·
Posted in Bitcoin News
Trusted Editorial content, reviewed by leading industry experts and seasoned editors. Ad Disclosure

Bitcoin has traded within a narrow range between $107,500 and $109,600 since last Friday, with volatility drying up as bulls and bears battle for control. This kind of price compression typically precedes a significant move, and traders are closely watching for the breakout. Some analysts believe Bitcoin is preparing to push above its all-time high near $112,000, fueled by strong fundamentals and persistent demand. Others, however, remain cautious and expect more consolidation before a clear trend emerges.

Related Reading: Bitcoin Volatility Hits Bull Cycle Low – Bollinger Bands Signal Potential Breakout

On-chain data from CryptoQuant reveals that long-term holders (LTHs) are currently sitting on an average unrealized profit of 215% above their cost basis. Historically, when these investors reach over 300% profit, they begin to gradually distribute their holdings back into the market. This places BTC in a zone of orderly profit-taking, not quite euphoria, but with a growing risk of a shift in behavior.

Whether the next move is a breakout or breakdown, the pressure is building. Bitcoin’s resilience above $107,000 continues to attract bullish attention, but only a strong push above the range will confirm momentum. Until then, market participants remain on edge, waiting for Bitcoin to pick a direction that could define the weeks ahead.

Long-Term Holders Reach Critical Zone: Bitcoin Tests Patience

Bitcoin’s recent price action has frustrated many investors, as the market continues to drift sideways in low volatility. After weeks of trading within a narrow range, market participants are beginning to lose patience. The prolonged consolidation presents downside risk if momentum fails to return soon. Despite this, the broader macroeconomic backdrop remains favorable. The U.S. stock market recently reached new all-time highs, and geopolitical tensions have eased, suggesting a supportive environment for risk assets like Bitcoin in the months ahead.

Top analyst Axel Adler shared insights pointing to a crucial on-chain signal — long-term holders (LTHs) are currently sitting on an average unrealized profit of 215% above their cost basis. Historically, when this metric crosses 300%, it marks a level where seasoned holders begin to distribute coins into strength. At 215%, the market is in the “orderly profit-taking” zone — not yet euphoric, but approaching levels that have historically led to increased sell pressure.

Bitcoin Long-Term Holder Realized Profit and Loss | Source: Axel Adler on X
Bitcoin Long-Term Holder Realized Profit and Loss | Source: Axel Adler on X

This on-chain signal suggests that while a breakout remains possible, upside may be limited unless new demand steps in. If the rally fails to extend soon, there’s a growing risk that long-term holders could begin offloading positions prematurely. This dynamic creates a delicate balance — bulls need to ignite momentum to attract new capital, or else risk seeing supply overwhelm price. For now, all eyes remain on $112,000 as the key level that could define Bitcoin’s next major move.

Related Reading: Bitcoin Trading Below Historical Bull Market Levels: Mayer Multiple Suggests BTC Is Undervalued

BTC Stuck Below Resistance

Bitcoin remains tightly range-bound between $107,500 and $109,600, with volatility continuing to compress as bulls attempt to push the price above resistance. As shown in the 8-hour chart, BTC has tested the $109,300 zone multiple times without managing a decisive breakout, suggesting strong selling pressure at this level. On the downside, the 50-, 100-, and 200-period moving averages (SMA) at $107,489, $106,572, and $105,448, respectively, continue to act as dynamic support levels.

BTC consolidates in a tight range below resistance | Source: BTCUSDT chart on TradingView
BTC consolidates in a tight range below resistance | Source: BTCUSDT chart on TradingView

Volume remains muted, signaling a lack of conviction from both bulls and bears. The longer BTC stays within this tight range, the more violent the eventual breakout could be. The price is currently hovering above all major SMAs, which is typically a bullish signal, and each dip toward the $107K zone has been met with buyer support.

Related Reading: Bitcoin Historical Pattern Repeats: 30-Day Funding Rate Signals Uptrend Continuation

If buyers manage to reclaim $109,300 with volume confirmation, Bitcoin could quickly revisit the all-time high near $112K. However, failure to hold above the moving averages could send BTC down to retest $103,600 — a key support level from late June. Overall, Bitcoin’s structure suggests that a significant move is coming, but directionality will depend on whether bulls can break resistance or bears regain momentum.

Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView

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Sebastian Villafuerte

Sebastian Villafuerte

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Sebastian's journey into the world of crypto began four years ago, driven by a fascination with the potential of blockchain technology to revolutionize financial systems. His initial exploration focused on understanding the intricacies of various crypto projects, particularly those focused on building innovative financial solutions. Through countless hours of research and learning, Sebastian developed a deep understanding of the underlying technologies, market dynamics, and potential applications of cryptocurrencies. As his knowledge grew, Sebastian felt compelled to share his insights with others. He began actively contributing to online discussions on platforms like X and LinkedIn, focusing on fintech and crypto-related content. His goal was to expose valuable trends and insights to a wider audience, fostering a deeper understanding of the rapidly evolving crypto landscape. Sebastian's contributions quickly gained recognition, and he became a trusted voice in the online crypto community. To further enhance his expertise, Sebastian pursued a UC Berkeley Fintech: Frameworks, Applications, and Strategies certification. This rigorous program equipped him with valuable skills and knowledge regarding Financial Technology, bridging the gap between traditional finance (TradFi) and decentralized finance (DeFi). The certification deepened his understanding of the broader financial landscape and its intersection with blockchain technology. Sebastian's passion for finance and writing is evident in his work. He enjoys delving into financial research, analyzing market trends, and exploring the latest developments in the crypto space. In his spare time, Sebastian can often be found immersed in charts, studying 10-K forms, or engaging in thought-provoking discussions about the future of finance. Sebastian's journey as a crypto analyst and investor has been marked by a relentless pursuit of knowledge and a dedication to sharing his insights. His ability to navigate the complex world of crypto, combined with his passion for financial research and communication, makes him a valuable asset to the industry. As the crypto landscape continues to evolve, Sebastian remains at the forefront, providing valuable insights and contributing to the growth of this revolutionary technology.

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