Crypto analyst, Philip Swift, predicts that the upcoming halving next year will catalyse a change in market sentiment and propel Bitcoin price back to five figures.
Bull Market Imminent
At the moment bitcoin price is still consolidating in the mid-$7,000 range. It has been pretty flat for the past week or so with a short burst upwards which was rapidly deflated. Since its dump below $8k on November 21, bitcoin has failed to break resistance and move higher. This indicates that there may be more pain before any gain.
Analyst Philip Swift has been collating a range of different charts and has concluded that we could be on the cusp of another bull market.
THREAD: $BTC: On-chain and market cycle update
TL:DR – Bull market is close!
— Philip Swift (@PositiveCrypto) December 5, 2019
The first chart uses the 350 day moving average as a test of support, which bitcoin price is currently holding. He added that price moving above this indicator has usually signaled a bull market.
This is not the most common technical indicator however, as most analysts tend to use the 50 and 200 moving averages on the weekly, daily and shorter term time frames. BTC is currently well below both on the daily frame but holding the 50 week moving average.
Network momentum is another metric worth keeping an eye on, and on-chain volumes may also signal a move into bullish territory. Swift added that we are in the late bear phase of the market cycle;
Combining all that with Golden Ratio Multiplier to look forward, likely we will have a big move up in Jan/Feb taking price up to the region of the 350 x 1.6 (green line), which will be approx $12-13k by then.
He expects an explosive move up to 2019’s high in the first two months of next year. Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Mike McGlone is in agreement that bitcoin price could get back into five figures in 2020.
Halving Hopium to Boost Bitcoin Price
From a fundamental angle the halving hopium could add to this narrative. Google Trends are showing that the number of searches for ‘bitcoin halving’ is increasing while crypto searches in general are way down.
The stock to flow model is also pretty much right on track as pointed out by fellow analyst ‘PlanB’. This ratio is used to evaluate the current stock of an asset against the flow of new production, which is amount of BTC mined that specific year.
Getting some questions about why in previous halvings (November 2012 and July 2016) it took well over a year for the market to start surging..
Well, it didn't .. look for yourself: in the chart the halving is when blue turns to red: the market immediately rises after a halving🚀 pic.twitter.com/geL71dJOV7
— PlanB (@100trillionUSD) December 3, 2019
At the moment bitcoin price remains in a sideways channel after falling below solid support but 2020 could see further gains driven by the halving. The likelihood of any major movements before Christmas though is slim.
Will bitcoin surge to $14k in Q1 2020? Add your thoughts below.
Images via Shutterstock, Twitter @PositiveCrypto @100trillionUSD
