Bitcoin is now facing a critical test after surging 12% since last Monday, but stalling at the $95,000 resistance zone over the weekend. Bulls have regained short-term control, yet the market is pausing at a crucial level that could define the next major move. Sentiment is shifting quickly, and technical indicators are beginning to flip bullish after weeks of uncertainty and heavy selling pressure.
CryptoQuant data reveals a key insight: the current value of the Bitcoin speculative multiplier stands at 2.1, about 31% above its three-year average. While this suggests that speculative activity is heating up, the metric still remains far from the extreme euphoria peaks typically seen at major cycle tops. This leaves room for potential upside if bullish momentum holds and BTC pushes decisively above current resistance.
As global macroeconomic uncertainty lingers, Bitcoin’s next move will likely set the tone for the broader crypto market. A clean breakout above $95K could open the door to a run toward $100K and beyond, while rejection at current levels may trigger a healthy pullback. For now, BTC is at a pivotal moment, and traders are watching closely for confirmation.
Bitcoin Holds Above $90K As Speculative Metrics Flash Bullish
Bitcoin continues to lead the crypto market with strength, holding comfortably above the $90,000 mark after a strong recovery over the past few weeks. Despite growing confidence among bulls, risks of a downside correction remain high as macroeconomic tensions—especially the ongoing trade conflict between the US and China—continue to weigh on global markets.
For Bitcoin to confirm a new bullish rally and push into new all-time highs, reclaiming the $100K level will be crucial. However, many analysts expect a consolidation phase, with BTC potentially ranging between $80K and $100K before a decisive breakout.
Top analyst Axel Adler shared revealing insights, highlighting that Bitcoin’s speculative multiplier now stands at 2.1, about 31% above its three-year average. This places it above its typical range but still far from the extreme euphoria peaks seen in previous cycles. Meanwhile, the multi-year return (3-year CAGR) is showing only moderate momentum, currently sitting around +30%, compared to +120% at the 2022 cycle peak.
Adler notes that a rise in the MC/RC ratio from 2.1 to 3.9 could imply an 86% price increase, projecting Bitcoin to approximately $175K. A more conservative target based on historical patterns would be around $120K. Overall, the market is clearly heating up, and Bitcoin remains in a pivotal position.
Price Action Details: Bulls Hold The Line
Bitcoin is currently trading at $94,700 as bulls work to push the price above the critical $95K–$96K resistance zone. After a strong recovery rally that began earlier this month, Bitcoin has gained over 12% and is now testing major supply areas. A decisive breakout above $96K could open the door for a fast move toward the psychological $100K mark, a level that would confirm the continuation of the bullish cycle and potentially spark further institutional and retail demand.
However, bulls must defend the $89K support level to maintain momentum. The $89K zone is closely aligned with the 200-day moving average, making it a pivotal level for Bitcoin’s short- and mid-term outlook. If bulls hold this support, a clean move toward $100K could unfold over the coming weeks.
On the flip side, losing $89K would likely weaken the bullish structure and trigger a deeper correction, with potential downside targets around the $80K–$82K range. With macroeconomic risks still looming, especially around global trade tensions, volatility is expected to remain elevated. Bitcoin’s next few moves will be critical in defining the trend heading into the summer months.
Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView
