Although the past few weeks have been marked by crypto assets jumping 5% then crashing 5% again and again, Bitcoin and the rest of the cryptocurrency market is actually consolidating.
The chart below shared by a crypto trader proves this point: it shows that Bitcoin has been trading tightly between the key 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages for the past two weeks.
In a further sign of the times, according to data shared by Skew.com, the implied volatility of the Bitcoin price — derived from the trading of BTC derivatives — has collapsed by approximately 50% in the past 30 days from 142% to 76%. Not to mention, the Bollinger Bands, a technical indicator that effectively measures an asset’s volatility, is nearing multi-month lows.
These three factors in tandem suggest that the crypto market is about to undergo an explosive move, but in which way?
Bulls are Winning the Crypto Tug-of-War
As it stands, bulls are winning the crypto battle, most analysts have said.
Per previous reports from Bitcoinist, there’s a confluence of technical, on-chain, and fundamental reasons why Bitcoin could soon head higher, which would wrest the rest of the industry higher with it.
On the fundamental side of things, the U.S. Senate just approved a supplemental stimulus package of $484 billion, adding to the $2 trillion stimuli it had already approved in March. Although its a package that is needed to save the economy, the stimulus, analysts say, proves the fundamental value of a scarce and decentralized currency, like BTC.
In terms of on-chain factors, Bitcoin’s hash rate has continued to rocket higher and higher ahead of the halving, while crypto assets have been found to have seen more use as of late in correlation with the market recovery.
Watch Out… It Isn’t Cut and Dried
Although bulls are seemingly more vocal than bears, it isn’t that there aren’t any bearish catalysts that could quickly send crypto assets falling.
A hedge fund manager named Mark Dow — the same investor who shorted the $20,000 top in December 2017 and covered 12 months later in December 2018 at the $3,200 bottom — recently shared that he thinks the cryptocurrency is on the “edge of a cliff,” adding:
“I’ve been saying…that Bitcoin on the chart is facing massive overhead resistance. Based on this chart, this rn is a textbook opportunity to short,” he said while pointing to the below image.
It’s a bearish assertion that has been echoed by other traders, like one who recently remarked that Bitcoin is in the midst of playing out a textbook rising wedge pattern, which is classically bearish for the asset being analyzed.
Photo by Aron Van de Pol on Unsplash