Bitcoin enters the final days of April pressed against a dense barricade of technical resistance, and crypto analyst Kevin (@Kev_Capital_TA) warns that a brief “shakeout” may be the price bulls must pay before the market can extend its 2025 advance.
Speaking in a YouTube update released late Sunday, the analyst reminded viewers that spot BTC has climbed “almost straight up for about 30 %,” propelled from a double-bottom low at $ to Friday’s intraday high near $95,800. That surge has now carried the market into what he calls a “golden pocket” — the 61.8 %–65 % Fibonacci retracement band between $94,410 and $95,581 — which overlaps both the range’s largest visible-volume node and the overall point of control. “There’s a lot of confluence here of resistance,” he said, cautioning that the cluster is “naturally” where Bitcoin should stall after such a vertical run.
Big Week Ahead For Bitcoin
Kevin’s base case is for a pullback of roughly 4% that would test the confluence of moving-average support lurking in the high-$80,000 zone. “Anywhere from $88,000 to $90,000, I think we would find major support,” he said, noting that a retrace of that scale is “enough to really get people kind of shaky.” The presence of an unfilled Chicago Mercantile Exchange gap at $91,600 adds further downside magnetism: “CME gaps do fill 90-plus % of the time.”
The rally’s structure nevertheless remains intact, in his view. Bitcoin already completed the upside objective of an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern whose measured move projected to about $96,000: “This inverse head and shoulders has played out,” giving technicians a textbook motive to book profits and reset oscillators without violating the medium-term up-trend. All four-hour moving averages are “way below us,” evidence, he argued, that the impulse “was a really strong move.”
Macro catalysts could intensify volatility over the next 72 hours. On Tuesday the US Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey lands, followed by Wednesday’s release of the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index — the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge. Consensus expects the core-PCE month-on-month rate to slow to 0.1 % from 0.4 %.
Kevin framed the print as pivotal: “If we get a positive Core PCE… the market is going to start sniffing out rate cuts.” He floated a scenario in which Bitcoin consolidates or dips into Wednesday’s data, then “boom — that’s our catalyst to start heading higher.”
Market-wide liquidity signals align with that script, he argued. Tether (USDT) dominance sits on its daily bull-market support band and 200-EMA but with “money flow… very negative, which is good for crypto.” Any bounce in USDT dominance, therefore, “will be short-lived” and, once exhausted, should coincide with Bitcoin’s next leg up.
Weekly-chart context also skews positive. With just minutes remaining before the candle closed, Bitcoin was set to print back above its own bull-market support band. Historically, that reclaim has sometimes been followed by a brief fake-out lower before a sustained breakout. “We’ll keep an eye on it,” Kevin said. “All we need to do is just beat this little area… $9,000 to $94,000, and it’s off to the races.”
For traders already long from the March lows, the analyst recommends patience and optional hedging rather than wholesale profit-taking. “Hedging is very valuable,” he said, describing the strategy of opening a small short “while you’re still long from the lows.” Conversely, he urged caution against panic should the market dip: “Short-term, don’t worry about the noise… higher time frames are flipping bullish every day.”
At press time, BTC traded at $94,577.
