Today is Groundhog Day in the United States — a day when locals gather around “Punxsutawney Phil” to watch if he sees his shadow, which is a superstitious sign that there is six more weeks of winter ahead.
Bitcoin and altcoins are suddenly soaring since the start of the year, after what has been one of the longest crypto winters on record. But could Punxsutawney Phil’s prediction today also mean another six months of crypto winter?
The Strange Story Of Groundhog Day
The origins of Groundhog Day date back thousands of years. In early Celtic calendars, rather than seasons and solstices there were so-called “turning points.”
May 1, for example, became May Day. While November 1 became All Saints’ Day and February 1 eventually became Groundhog Day.
Before it took the form of Groundhog Day, it was called “Candlemas Day.”
“If Candlemas day be fair and bright
Winter will have another flight
If on Candlemas day it be showre and rain
Winter is gone and will not come again,” an old poem read.
Although it’s not understood why, the Germans brought badgers into the tradition to help predict the weather related outcome. When the holiday came to America via the Dutch settlers of Pennsylvania, the groundhog took place of the badger.
What Six More Weeks Of Crypto Winter Would Look Like
Today, Punxsutawney Phil, the iconic groundhog representing the holiday, took the position that “six more weeks of winter” is coming. With Bitcoin and altcoins soaring, should the market also fear another six more weeks of crypto winter?
Interestingly, the folklore points to a “turning point” beginning on February 1. While the market might have already flipped bullish, today could be a more official turning point.
Will the same situation repeat again and again? | BTCUSD on TradingView.com
A film was made named after the holiday where lead actor Bill Murray relived the same day again and again. When taking a zoomed out view of the crypto market via BTCUSD charts, bottoming here would be a Groundhog Day like scenario where cryptocurrency bull runs repeat with a cyclical rhythm.
If the cryptocurrency market were to experience another six months of crypto winter, it might not mean new lows. In 2015, Bitcoin attempted to breakout form its bear market bottom, only to be rejected down for precisely six more weeks of crypto winter.
What six more week's of crypto winter would look like | BTCUSD on TradingView.com
If BTCUSD and altcoins are once again rejected here, perhaps Punxsutawney Phil and Groundhog Day are worth adding to the list other seasonal financial market phenomenon like the “January effect” or “sell in May and go away.”