Bitcoin could be in for a 2-month lull going by historical data of BTC’s monthly performance since 2010.
August is Historically Worst Month for Bitcoin Price
In a tweet by “Cane Island Crypto” on Wednesday (June 19, 2019) the bitcoin analyst revealed a trend which shows a cooling period for bull rallies between August and September. This conclusion comes from examining the median BTC monthly returns since 2010.
According to the data, August has been bitcoin’s worst-performing month between 2010 and 2018. With the month less than eight weeks away, the trend might repeat itself causing a temporary lull in BTC’s bullish advance.
Before then, BTC might push on to reach even newer highs in 2019. Based on the evidence, April, June, and July have seen positive aggregated price movements since 2010.
Thus, if the trend holds through, then bitcoin could possibly be in for a continuation of its hot 2019 streak. July, however, holds the lowest positive aggregated median bitcoin return under the period being considered.
Bitcoin has always seemed to suffer seasonal summer declines usually lasting from June 6 to October 8 on the average. According to Seasonax – a trading analysis platform – BTC’s annualized summer declines over the last seven years stands at more than 13%.
This historical trend may play well into expectations of a slight BTC price retrace espoused in recent weeks by the likes of Trace Mayer and Tuur Demeester. Both commentators see BTC experiencing a price dip to somewhere in mid-$6k to mid-$7k region.
Bullish MACD Cross Contradicts Historical Forecast
While history predicts summer doldrums for BTC, technical indicators seem to paint a different picture. In a tweet published by Filbfilb, senior analyst at Bitcoinist, bitcoin is about to see its third monthly bullish MACD crossover of all time.
Bitcoin is about to have its third monthly bullish MACD cross of all time.
Its worked out pretty well in the past. 😈 pic.twitter.com/5UtrPJPsGL
— fil₿fil₿ (@filbfilb) June 20, 2019
The last bullish MACD cross happened at the back-end of 2016 which culminated in the late 2017 bull run that saw BTC almost top $20,000. So even if a slight lull occurs between August and September, BTC, overall, seems poised to enter a long-term phase of parabolic advance.
The imminent bullish MACD cross is the latest indicator to point towards a long-term bull trend for the top-ranked cryptocurrency. Such is the optimism that BTC bulls are making bold end-of-year price predictions.
As previously reported by Bitcoinist, Tom Lee of Fundstrat expects bitcoin to reach $40,000 within the coming months. Lee’s forecast, however, hinges of the move above $10,000 triggering a return FOMO among retail investors.
Will the bitcoin summer weakness trend continue in 2019? Let us know your thoughts in the comment section below.