Ross Ulbricht, even from prison, remains a true Bitcoin (BTC) believer. He predicts much higher valuations in the future, based on the model of the Elliott Wave.
Elliott Wave Won’t Chart Clear Future Price for Bitcoin
Ulbricht’s Elliott Wave theory post ties up stock market movements with observations on human psychology. Levels of interest and enthusiasm tend to be cyclical, resulting in stock market cycles. Since bitcoin prices are susceptible to hype and renewed interest, Ulbricht applies the theory to the potential future price of BTC.
Ulbricht, who is still imprisoned for running the Silk Road website, believes bitcoin is on an overall upward trend. Enthusiasm and periods of growth are also self-amplifying and may repeat in the future.
However, the Elliott Wave theory is tricky in that there is no way to outline the next wave ahead of time. Waves are only discernible in hindsight. Ulbricht sees the current price moves as belonging to wave 5, which may be over, or it may be just developing based on a new set of attitudes and expectations.
Counting waves in hindsight is fairly straightforward. Counting them as they develop is much more challenging, but much more rewarding. A correct count before a wave is finished puts you in a position to predict future prices
He counts wave 5 from the beginning of 2018, but its end cannot be determined at this points. In 2018, BTC for the first time felt the increased effect of futures markets, entering a new period of price discovery.
Waves May Happen on Different Time Scales
Bitcoin is also more complicated in that waves may be counted on a much smaller scale. In the past months, the price of bitcoin moved on multiple leads of hype and fear, giving 2019 several distinct periods.
For now, bitcoin has been retrofitted into multiple models, and overall, the general opinion is that it will continue in an upward move in the medium to long term. The stock-to-flow and natural corridor of growth have been used to chart possible six-digit prices, or more.
Ulbricht also zooms out his model, showing that the current wave can point to a new high, but it is also possible that the entire climb to $20,000 is still in a correction in the next Elliott Wave.
BTC weakened toward the end of 2019, abandoning the $7,500 level and moving down to $7,290.40. For now, the hopes of a renewed upward move see bitcoin attempt a new rally in May 2020. Still, the future price remains unpredictable, and BTC usually makes its biggest moves in a short time frame, without warning.
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