Despite the market crash, ARK Invest Analyst @yassineARK points out that Bitcoin is still +400% up compared to this time last year. A look back to that period shows BTC priced at $9.5k, and uncertainty over the “corona-crash” was dominating sentiment.
“Even down 40% from its peak, Bitcoin is up 400% in the last year. Where is the perspective?“
Although yesterday’s crash was undeniably brutal, it was not triggered by any fundamental changes to cryptocurrency as a whole. And true to form, bulls are showing up today, only adding to the narrative that long-term diamond hand hodlers remain in a decent position.
We’re Not In The Clear Yet
As the autopsy on what happened continues into today, markets have responded by rallying hard. The total crypto market cap is now approximately the same as before yesterday’s crash. But still 18% down from the start of the seven-day rolling period.
The crash was a real wake-up call for hit and run speculators and over-leveraged longs. However, that’s not to say we’re in the clear after the shake-out.
Analysis performed by Altsignal puts Bitcoin at a “pivotal point.” He drew attention to the $40k-$42k range, which represents the 200-day EMA.
Source: BTCUSDT on TradingView.com
“After the huge move down recently, we are now at a pivotal point for Bitcoin . The important price to watch is the $40K – $42K level where we had previous structure and the 200EM and the 100EMA.
If we see any ascending correction on the smaller timeframe, we can assume that the leg is not yet over. However, if we do break the level indicated impulsively, we can watch for bull flags or a retest to take Bitcoin higher.”
Although the daily candle has yet to close at the time of writing, analysis of the charts shows price action hovering above the 200-day EMA. Leading to hopes that bulls have regained control of the market.
Bitcoin Has Suffered Far Worse
From its all-time high of $64k, Bitcoin crashed about 53% at the height of the drop yesterday. But as far as Bitcoin crashes go, that ranks about a 6/10.
Examination of the history of Bitcoin crashes shows six previous incidents with more significant percentage drops. Most prominent being the 110 weeks from Nov 2013 to Jan 2016, which produced a slow-motion 87% crash from $1,163 to $152.
During this period, multiple incidents happened, including the first instance of China ban FUD, regulatory FUD, and perhaps most impactful of all, the Mt. Gox hack in which 850,000 BTC was stolen.
To date, the website 99bitcoins.com has recorded 414 incidents of Bitcoin “dying.” Interestingly, less than halfway through 2021 and there are already 21 reports of death. This figure is up compared to 2020, which recorded 14 reports of death through the entire 12 month period.
But as attested to, even after yesterday’s horror show, BTC is still ticking over as intended.