Bitcoin Price Analysis: Bulls Must Defend $3800 By The Monthly Close
Bitcoin price has got off to a lackluster start, finding weekly lows of $3850, down from $3980 after finishing the week on a fifth consecutive green candle. Let’s take a closer look at the BTC price action to look what may be in store for the final week of March.
Looking at the 4-hour chart, we can see that Bitcoin price has been in a downward trajectory almost immediately since Monday morning. The relatively high volume sell-off found lows of $3850, from which it bounced to $3940 but was subsequently rejected.
Price action has since been tightening up around $3900 but continues to threaten more downside action as a bearish pennant is forming. This would imply a potential downside risk of new weekly lows around $3800. The MACD supports this scenario as it continues its downward trajectory and the histogram printing new lows. In other words, the bears are in control.
Looking at the 1-Day Bitcoin Chart, the market remains in a bottoming pattern, which requires completion. This will only occur if bitcoin price can close with a higher high above $4250 on the daily chart.
The monthly open of $3780 can be seen to be at the 50 and 100-day moving averages. The bearish momentum currently shows an initial target on the 4-hour chart at around $3800.
Meanwhile, the 50 and 100-day moving averages on the daily chart are potentially acting as support where the bulls generally need to defend the monthly open. This implies that the slow the bleed to the downside may meet some resistance at around $3800.
Volume in the BTC market remains to be slowly in decline, which is implicit of a bigger move being in the works. The MACD on the daily remains above zero, but is slowly trending downwards and there it crossed bearish with its signal line.
With five days remaining before bitcoin price closes the month, the weekly chart shows that BTC/USD is on course for a second consecutive monthly green candle for the first time in this bear market.
Price continues to be supported by the 50-Month moving average, which is currently at the lows of $3185 seen in December 2018.
The MACD line is threatening to pull up before crossing into bearish territory, which can be seen by a second consecutive higher low on the histogram.
Therefore, the levels mentioned earlier will be critical for the bulls. If the market can flush down to $3800 and bounce back up to around $4000, the monthly close will look very positive for the bulls.
However, if the bulls can only produce a disappointing $3800 doji candle, or worse, the bears will be in position to capitalize in April. So these final few days of March will be pivotal as we slide back to $3800 on Tuesday.
In summary: bulls have some work to do to end March on a positive note, with $3800 being the critical battle ground.
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The views and opinions of the writer should not be misconstrued as financial advice. For disclosure, the writer holds Bitcoin at the time of writing.
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