After spending weeks ranging within $30k, the bulls’ edge in this month’s $1.7 billion options expiry was strengthened by Bitcoin’s climb past $40,000.
A total of 42,850 Bitcoin (BTC) option contracts worth $1.7 billion are slated to expire on Friday, July 30. Bulls may be able to benefit from the $40,000 call (buy) options for the first time since the weekly expiry on May 21.
Regardless of the rationale for the recent market strength, according to options markets, bulls have a few incentives to keep the $40,000 level.
While the call-to-put ratio favors neutral-to-bullish call options by 21%, a large portion of those bets were placed at $45,000 and above strikes. With fewer than 14 hours to maturity, these options are almost worthless.
Bulls Maintain Market Stronghold
For the monthly expiry, bears were overconfident, and 87 percent of neutral-to-bearish put options were placed at $39,000 or lower. A total of $105 million in put options will be available if bears can keep the price below this level on July 30.
Meanwhile, $320 million is invested in neutral-to-bullish call options below $39,000. As a result, the neutral-to-bullish call options have a $215 million advantage.
If the price stays above $40,000 on July 30, the bulls will have a $140 million lead. This difference appears to be sufficient to justify a price push over that level, at least until Deribit expiry.
BTC futures worth a total of $650 million are slated to expire this Friday, although the amount will be mostly determined by the CME’s $455 million, as traders may close their positions before the expiry, which takes place at 3:00 p.m. UTC.
The options market data currently supports bulls, at least for the time being.
BTC/USD slumps back below $40k. Source: TradingView
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Featured image from iStockPhoto, Charts from TradingView.com and Bybit