Everybody knows that one day Bitcoin mining will eventually cease, and the last coin will be mined. The date for this is expected to be around the year 2140. So what could an investment of $100 now be worth in 120 years time?
Bitcoin to the Moon
To estimate the price of Bitcoin well into the future we need to take a look at growth models for the cryptocurrency. The two most well-known are Parabolic Trav’s Parabolic super trend price growth model, and Plan B’s Stock to Flow price model (S2F).
We’ll also have to take into account that if hyperbitcoinization does occur, and Bitcoin becomes global money used by everyone, and no other kind of currency exists at all, there are still limits to Bitcoin’s price growth.
Hal Finney predicted Bitcoin to have a price of 10 million per coin back in 2009. In Finney’s estimate he simply took the estimates for world household wealth and divided it by 21 million coins.
He arrived at $10 million per coin. Decrypt revisited the idea, and recalculated with updated numbers and came to a price of $18 million per coin. Bitcoin’s parabolic growth can only keep rising until there is no more wealth whose value can be converted to Satoshis.
Parabolic Super Trend
Parabolic Trav’s parabolic super trend model closely correlates with Plan B’s stock to flow model. While many investors discount the idea of parabolic growth, Bitcoin has already grown 2,232,111,011.11% since Marti Malmi sold the first Bitcoins for fiat currency in 2009, to its all time high of $20K in 2017.
Bitcoin follows an S-curve of technological adoption, because while it is a “currency” it is also new technology, which is being adopted by new users at S-curve adoption rates.
See the similarities in Trav’s parabolic price model and S-curves of new technology adoption? They are both parabolic. We may see BTC follow the steeper curve exhibited by smart phones and the internet.
Bitcoin Stock to Flow Model
Stock to flow is how many years it would take to produce the current total supply of an asset. Gold’s stock to flow is 62. It would take 62 years of mining to produce the current world supply.
Plan B’s S2F further supports this parabolic growth with the model he provided to show the impact Bitcoin’s halvings have on price. Bitcoin’s S2F is 25, currently but will be halved to an S2F of 50, much closer to gold.
On the graph above you can see the parabolic price increase overlaid with the reduction in block rewards every 210,000 blocks (roughly 4 years).
Plan B’s model predicts a trillion dollar Bitcoin market cap after the upcoming halving, or a projected price of $55,000 per BTC.
Following Plan B’s model, Digitalek.net projects the price of BTC in 2025 to be $1,215,730.5 per coin.
Finney’s Estimate in Light of Parabolic Growth And S2F
Credit Suisse estimates global household wealth to be $360 trillion in USD. Dividing this number by 21 million Bitcoin puts us at a price of $17,142,857 per BTC.
However, Chainalysis estimates that as much as 4 million BTC have been lost, so let’s calculate for 17 million BTC. Using Finney’s calculation with 17 million BTC instead of 21 puts us at $21,176,470.58.
Assuming hyperbitcoinization occurs by 2140, $100 dollars of BTC at today’s current price of $8880, would be 0.01126 in Satoshis. These same Satoshis could have a projected value of $238,373.77 by the time the last Bitcoin is mined in 2140.
How much do you think 1 BTC will be worth in 2140? Let us know in the comments!