Over 300,000 Bitcoin have quietly moved into long-term holder wallets in the past 30 days — a shift that analysts say reflects growing conviction among serious investors even as broader market mood remains fragile.
Sentiment Index Climbs To Highest Point Since January
That accumulation is happening against a backdrop of improving, if still cautious, market sentiment. The Alternative.me Crypto Fear & Greed Index surged 14 points in a single day to reach a score of 46 out of 100 — the highest reading since January 18 and the biggest one-day jump in more than three months.
Bitcoin supply is moving into stronger hands.
Over the last 30 days:
• Long Term Holder Supply: +303K BTC
• ETF Netflows: +16.8K BTC
• Strategy: +53.0K BTCAnd meanwhile:
• Short Term Holder Supply: -290K BTC pic.twitter.com/LeoKkZ3MMq— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) April 22, 2026
The score remains in the “Fear” zone, where it has been stuck since mid-January, but the speed of the move caught attention across trading circles. Bitcoin itself held near $78k after briefly climbing to $79,500, a gain of roughly 5% over a 20-hour window.
The index score of 46 sits just below the neutral threshold of 50. Getting there matters, but the market still has ground to cover.
Futures Market Leads The Push
Not all of the momentum behind Bitcoin’s rise came from the same place. According to CryptoQuant’s analysis, the rally was driven entirely by demand in the perpetual futures market.
Spot demand — buying on actual exchanges rather than through derivatives — has been contracting, albeit slowly. CryptoQuant flagged that a price correction could follow if traders begin taking profits while spot interest remains weak.
Speculative rally: The recent Bitcoin price increase is completely driven by demand in the perpetual futures market. Meanwhile, spot demand is still contracting (although at a slower pace).
The same happened on January, when Bitcoin peaked at $98K.
There are risks of a… pic.twitter.com/HDt157QJwJ
— Julio Moreno (@jjcmoreno) April 22, 2026
Perp-driven moves without matching spot activity have historically been short-lived, and that pattern is worth watching here.
Strategy, the company formerly known as MicroStrategy, has been among the most aggressive buyers, snapping up 53,000 Bitcoin over the past month alone.
Reports from CryptoQuant indicate the broader supply shift points to coins moving from short-term to long-term holders — a sign, analysts say, that the asset is finding a more stable base of ownership.
Retail Traders Yet To Return In Force
One notable gap in the recovery is retail participation. Bitwise chief investment officer Matt Hougan has said publicly that everyday traders have not returned to the market at the same volumes seen in previous cycles.
That matters because the Fear & Greed Index draws heavily from retail-driven data points — Google search volume and social media activity related to crypto. Without a pickup in those signals, the index faces a ceiling.
Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView
